The research firm IDC has updated its forecast about worldwide smartphone growth as it is now expected to grow just 10.4% in 2015 as compared to the original forecast of YoY growth of 11.3%.
The report said that the expected gain is far below the 27.5 percent the YoY rise registered in 2014. IDC expects to see a noticeable slowdown in smartphone shipments in 2015 as China joins North America and Western Europe in a more mature growth pattern. It added that steadily falling average selling prices of smartphones will fuel “steady growth” through the end of 2019, with global shipments reaching 1.9 billion units that year. China, which is the largest market for smartphones, accounted for 32.3 percent of all new smartphone shipments. The research firm said China will remain the largest market for smartphone volumes throughout 2019, but its share of the market is expected to drop to 23.1 percent that year as “high-growth” markets like India continue to expand.
“China clearly remains a very important market. However, the focus will be more on exports than consumption as domestic growth slows significantly. India has captured a lot of the attention that China previously received and it’s now the market with the most potential upside. The interesting thing to watch will be the possibility of manufacturing moving from China and Vietnam over to India. We’ve begun to see this move as a means to cut costs and capitalize on financial benefits associated with localized India manufacturing. It is the local vendors like Micromax, Lava, and Intex that will feel the most pressure from international competition within its market.”
said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
Moving on, IDC stated that although Apple is enjoying the success with the iPhones, Google’s Android will remain the king of the market through 2019, grabbing a handsome 81 percent share this year. Apple’s iOS is expected to be number 2 throughout 2019, with 15.6 percent share in 2015. Android shipments globally are expected to grow from 1.06 billion in 2014 to 1.54 billion in 2019, while iOS shipments will grow from 192.7 million in 2014 to 269.6 million in 2019. Giving insights about demand for types of devices, IDC revealed that phablets (smartphones with 5.5″-7″ screens) will continue to drive shipment volumes in both emerging and developed markets.
“Since Apple finally delivered a larger screen smartphone with the iPhone 6+, the demand for large screened devices among consumers has been at a record high. Smartphones featuring display sizes from 5.5 inches to 6 inches are forecast to grow 84% in 2015 compared to last year, while phablets overall will make up over 71% of shipments by 2019.”
said Anthony Scarsella, Research Manager with IDC’s Mobile Phones team.
IDC further mentions that this screen size (5.5″-6″) also plays the role of having the highest average selling prices for devices throughout the forecast. IDC expects this screen size band to be the placeholder for a majority of vendors’ flagship device launches throughout the forecast period.