2015 will be the first full year of single-digit worldwide smartphone growth, according to a latest forecast from IDC. The research firm has predicted that worldwide smartphone shipments will grow 9.8% in 2015 to a total of 1.43 billion units.
IDC is attributing the slow down in smartphone shipment growth in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, and Western Europe. The slower growth is expected to intensify slightly over the 2015-2019 forecast period and is largely attributed to lower shipment forecasts for Windows Phone as well as “alternative platforms”. Moving on, the research firm stated that an economic slowdown in China has affected the overall market growth.
“With the smartphone market finally slowing to single-digit growth, maintaining momentum will depend on several factors. The main driver has been and will continue to be the success of low-cost smartphones in emerging markets. This, in turn, will depend on capturing value-oriented first-time smartphone buyers as well as replacement buyers. We believe that, in a number of high-growth markets, replacement cycles will be less than the typical two-year rate, mainly because the components that comprise a sub-$100 smartphone simply do not have the ability to survive two years. Offering products that appeal to both types of buyers at a suitable price point will be crucial to maintaining growth and vendor success.”
said Ryan Reith , Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker .
The Middle East & Africa (MEA) region will see the highest growth in 2015 with shipments expected to increase nearly 50% year over year, surpassing “hot growth” markets like India and Indonesia. Android’s market share is expected to grow slightly from 81% in 2015 to 82% over the forecast period. Despite numerous attempts by “alternative platforms” to enter the market, none have proved successful. IDC believes the proliferation of the core Android platform will continue with huge efforts being put forth by companies like Cyanogen and Xiaomi to differentiate themselves from their competitors. The research firm has raised its 4Q15 iPhone numbers by 7.6% based on continued consumer demand for the 6(+) and S6(+)
IDC is forecasting a year-over-year decline of -10.2% in 2015, followed by further decline in 2016. The weak results can largely be attributed to the lack of OEM partner support.