In the latest research note, Ming-Chi Kuo has cut his shipping estimates for the iPhone XR due to several factors. This might the result of the higher demand for the iPhone XS and the older models. He is reducing his iPhone shipment forecasts by 15–20% for the first quarter of 2019. This news falls in line with reports of Apple canceling additional production of iPhone XR owing to poor reception.
Kuo believes that iPhone shipments for the current quarter will be in the same 75–80 million range he previously predicted. However, he has lowered his first-quarter estimate to 47–52 million from a previous range of 55–60 million. Given that he has raised his early iPhone XR estimate a month ago and cited stronger demand seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for more stable demand over time, this new estimate is surprising.
This drop in estimation also comes owing to the competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series. Kuo has reduced the iPhone XR shipment estimations for Q4 2018, Q1 2019, and Q2 2019 by 30–35%, 25–30%, and 25–30% to 30–35, 20–25, and 10–15mn units, respectively.
In the latest research note, Kuo said:
We have reduced our iPhone XR shipment estimation from 100mn units to 70mn during the new product lifecycle (4Q18–3Q19) for the following reasons: 1) Negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war, especially in the Chinese market, 2) expectations from more users for more affordable XR or the dual-camera and narrower bezel design to be provided at the current price level, and 3) competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series. We have reduced our XR shipment estimations for 4Q18, 1Q19, and 2Q19 by 30–35%, 25–30%, and 25–30% to 30–35, 20–25, and 10–15mn units, respectively.